AXL Capital Management

Following the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report provides the projected levels of gold prices for June 2020. For June 2020, the model indicates a lower limit of 1,640US$/0z and an upper limit of 1,812 US$/Oz. This upper limit continues to increase will see if, in the coming months, it can indicate a trend. The U.S. economy is following its recovery plan, and New York - the state with the highest number of COVID-19 infections - has also entered its first phase of economic recovery. With the U.S. employment data and the growing number of people infected -and dying- by COVID19, we will see in the coming weeks if Gold can reach the upper limit of the AXL Capital model: 1,812 US$/Oz or on the contrary, it is close to the lower limit; 1,640 US$/Oz. The economic reopening and a resurgence of the virus crown correlate, in the short term, indirectly and directly, respectively, with the prices of Gold. Likewise, in the last two weeks, there has been an increase in so...

The first week of June starts with all the SPX, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices (14:30 hours), rising an average of 0.44%. Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the world (current market capitalization of US$ 98.5 trillion), says that the rise in the stock market does not reflect reality, and there will be collateral damage. The price of gold rises by 0.4% to $1,739/Oz at that time. At AXL Capital, we see that this reflects a high level of competition between those who are betting on the market's recovery in line with the rampant economic reopening in the US and the global injection of dollars underway, versus large investors who in April and May were able to reap the benefits of years and raise their cash levels as Warren Buffet - one of the largest investors of all time - did, pointing to a new, healthy and significant market downturn reflected in a worldwide Recession, technically for the second quarter of the year due to the effects of the COVID-19 according to the federal reser...

According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for May 2020. For May 2020, the model indicates a lower limit of US $ 1,619 / 0z, and an upper limit of US $ 1,787 / Oz, the latter represents the maximum value since November 2012. When analyzing those results with technical price indicators, the conclusion made that if the upper lateral channel of US $ 1,742 / Oz breaks, the next level projected by the model is feasible to reach: US $ 1,787 / Oz.   Chart # 1: The daily chart of the price of Gold shows a side-channel whose upper level is US $1,742 / Oz, and the lower level is US $1,671 / Oz. The US economy is reopening in many states, a slow recovery of jobs expected, which at the date of this report reaches a record historical figure of 33, 483,000 jobs lost from 03/21 to 05/02 (Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis). That figure represents almost the entire Peruvian population. Currently, there is no cure ...

The monthly tracking from January 2018 to March 2020 in the upper and lower range, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. However, it should be noted that for the first time since the model operates, daily gold prices from March 16 to 24 exceeded the estimated lower limit, all other days real gold prices were within the established ranges. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits. Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) January 2018- March 2020. Gold prices for March 2020 exhibited above-average volatilities, the closing of the borders between countries by the COVID-19 in the first place delayed gold, explained above due to massive sales of the gold medal to cover short positions in the stock market and seek and possess liquidity among investors and entrepreneurs. In this way, it is the first time that the lower band of the model estimates is broken between days 13-24, as sho...

Will Gold repeat or exceed the prices of the last recession of 2008? How will this increase the cash flow of the Gold mining companies, strengthen their financial position, their reinvestment options, their long-term strategies, and their benefits for their stakeholders and the joy of their shareholders? Gold has benefited from global uncertainty and risk aversion mainly due to the Washington-Beijing trade war and fears of the end of one of the longest bullish business cycles. The price of gold has risen by more than 16% this year. The big beneficiaries? Gold miners could see their income for this second semester (H2) of 2019 increase by 25 US $ million for every 100 KAuoz of production, considering a budget of the Gold price for 2019 at 1,200 US $ / Auoz and price of the final sale of US $ 1,450 / Auoz. In other words, for every 1 Million Auoz produced for this H2, income would rise by 250 MM the US $, only due to the effects of Gold prices. “Nice dilemma” for Gold miners, thinking of...

According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for March 2020. The monthly tracking from January 2018 to February 2020 in the upper and lower ranges, the closing prices of exchange to each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. Just on 24 February, the exchange of ten am issued by the LBM was US $ 1,682 / Auoz just in the upper limit estimated by the model. All other days the real prices of Gold for February within the ranges established. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits. Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) March 2018- February 2020. In February 2020, the level of global uncertainty continued to rise, this time being strongly impacted by the Coronavirus, and with it, the market volatility registered in VIX at the date of this report is at 54.6. Graph # 2: Gold prices broke the lower limit of the model from days 13 to 24 d...